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Trends are slow progressions, and global warming or the present climate change can be called one. The gradual increase in the human population is a very important one, with its associated influence from pollution, habitat change, introduced species and many more. Although climate change to a possible new ice age is another trend, all others are recognisably caused by humans. So the perception that trends are unnatural whereas cycles are natural, has taken hold in the minds of many. However, this may not be entirely true or not true at all when one looks at their effects on nature.

Suppose a warm/cold water cycle exists of about 10 years, superimposed on the yearly warm/cold cycle. It could bring summers that are warmer than normal and winters colder than normal, and these extremes could affect the environment, although such extremes are entirely natural. Now add to this the trend of plankton blooms increasing in density, and suddenly the temperature extremes are amplified as they work through the plankton ecosystem, causing cyclical mass mortalities. In other words, the effects of the natural cycles have become unnatural although the cycles themselves are natural. This has become the norm rather than the exception. Is the change in climate natural or unnatural? Are the suddenly increasing torrential rains natural or unnatural?
 
 

But there is an important aspect of cycles superimposed on trends, as the diagram shows. Although natural cycles are often undulating slowly like a clock's pendulum, their effects on the environment are usually not. It has to do with the difference between life and death, which is a profound long-term change. Because of this, disasters strike rapidly whereas their recovery times proceed more slowly, as shown in the diagram. As disasters become more frequent, or when these are superimposed on a gradual degradation, nature appears to become tired, and recovery proceeds more slowly and less complete. This is how degradation proceeds, something to keep in mind when reading every point made in this document.  Think of the ups as good and the downs as bad. A bad year allows one to look far into the future whereas good years look a little backward. Likewise the leftover species allow one to look backward in time. Eventually today's bad year will be tomorrow's good year. Today's bad summer will be tomorrow's good summer. Think about it.

There are people who claim that we cannot make a value judgement about the environment. Is a fine day better than a stormy day? Is summer better than winter? Is a desert better than a tropical rainforest? Is gravity good? and so on. If one reasons in a human-centric way, and looks back at how Homo sapiens evolved, one can say that it did well somewhere in between starving in the desert and dying from disease in the rain forest, not unlike the plankton balance hypothesis suggests for all creatures in the sea. From that perspective we can say what is good for us and what is bad. But can we say that degradation is bad? Is losing both the quantity and quality of life (which is not our life) bad? What do you think?

In search of the cycles of essential minerals for life, Dr James Lovelock discovered the sulphur cycle from sea to land already some 30 years ago. As a by-product of photosynthesis, marine plankton produces an invisible gas called di-methyl sulphide (DMS). Its molecule CH3.S.CH3 resembles that of water H.O.H with similar polarity and shape and this attracts water molecules to it. Dr Lovelock discovered that DMS plays a major role in the formation of clouds (tiny water droplets) from water vapour which is invisible and transparent. He posited that the marine plankton played a major role in controlling the Earth's temperature by producing more white, sun-reflecting cloud, when the Earth needed cooling. Global circulation scientists now acknowledge that the DMS cycle should become part of their computer models if these are to predict global temperatures reliably. But the DMS cycle may have other consequences.

Increased runof from the land fertilises the sea, which causes more intense plankton blooms. These produce more DMS which produces more rain and more torrential rains. These in turn produce more runoff, and more plankton blooms, and so on, a self-intensifying cycle. But there is more to it.

We have recently discovered wit the DDA method that when plankton density increases, the planktonic decomposers can very suddenly increase their numbers, to such extent that they command most of the solar energy. This means that the phytoplankton is decomposed before it can be grazed by the zooplankton. During decomposition, the DMS gas is formed as is now known from other studies. (DMS with its molecular structure CH3.S.CH3 resembles the decomposition gas hydrogen sulphide H.S.H. Also an intermediate form CH3.S.H can be formed during decomposition) The conclusion is unavoidable: in recent times suddenly much more DMS has been formed and this is accelerating still.

Could we have entered an accelerating vicious cycle which leads to more and more dense plankton blooms and loss of land? It could help explain why the sea's problems are accelerating so fast, world-wide. Is this vicious cycle going to exceed all other known threats? The speed with which the degradation of the sea accelerates, confirms it. Think about it.

In case of increased DMS levels in the atmosphere, the following can be predicted:

• more rain?: the amount of water vapour in the air (on land) is determined primarily by the temperature and local evapo-transpiration from plants. DMS makes clouds more likely where previously water vapour could not condensate. So there could be a small increase in the amount of rainfall. Above the sea humidity (water vapour) depends on temperature and wind speed.
• denser rain: DMS invites raindrops to form more easily and more of it would lead to larger droplets, and thus more intensive rains. It is particularly because of this that erosion increases so dramatically.
• more clouds: DMS will convert more water vapour into clouds, although this may not be a large effect. However, everywhere in the world the blue skies have been disappearing.
• lower cloud ceiling: as air rises, it cools due to expansion and to the fact that the air is cooler at altitude. An increased level of DMS would allow clouds to form at lower altitude, thereby lowering the cloud ceiling.
• sea mists: sea mist is a low altitude cloud. Increased DMS concentrations would provide more occurrences of sea mist, which has indeed been observed.
• stronger hurricanes: hurricanes derive their energy from the transfer of heat from a warm ocean to the sky. It is done by water vapour which condensates into water droplets. All the above effects contribute to a more efffective transfer of heat, and thus more powerful hurricanes.

Reader please note that the threat from the DMS cycle has not been published elsewhere.

• overcapacity: an overcapacity in mouths, storage tissue, reproduction, functionality,
• binge-to-famine: capable of swilling but also fasting for a long time: starfish, anemones, whelks
• shrinking in size: capable of growing small, using up stored energy: anemones, some echinoderms,
• opportunists: species that live short, grow fast and reproduce profusely: seasquirts, bryozoa, barnacles
• broadcast spawners: species that produce many eggs in a short period: barnacles, molluscs.
• many mouths: colonial seasquirts, sponges, hydrozoa
• growing old: being able to produce more offspring year after year.
• replication: local replication by cloning, splitting, rhizomes, body shape,
• cloning: local copies of a parent: anemones, bryozoan mats
• splitting: by splitting oneself, two smaller copies are made locally: some starfish, anemones, micro-organisms,
• rhizomes: plants with running roots, carpet tube worms, turfing,
• many identical arms: starfish, anemones, corals, seaweeds,
• hermaphrodites: being male and female in one organism, able to reproduce asexually without a partner: many molluscs,
• sex change: born female, becoming male sexual efficiency. Many females, few males: various fishes
• diversity: diversity within a species, diversity of food source, functionality,
• food generalists: eating many types of food: whelks, scavengers, some fishes,
• connectivity: individuals connected so that many can repair or feed the few.
• connected individuals: sponges, gorgoneans, compound ascidians, hydrozoa,
• rhizomes: plants with running roots, carpet tube worms, some sponges
• transport: by currents (plankton) and winds (plankton, picoplankton) and swimming (fish)
• schooling: schooling behaviour in fish, shrimp and many others
• mobility: the ability to move out of danger and into areas rich in food; to allow for recovery of exploited areas.
• swimming: swimming actively like fish do. Note that the ability to swim up and down the water columns is already very important.
• dispersion by currents: ocean and tidal currents move organisms around
• dispersion by winds: very small organisms (plankton) can be dispersed far and wide and against the currents
• adaptability: adaptability to changing circumstances and food sources;
• dual life cycles: hybernation, cysts, spores: seaweeds, plankton organisms,
• opportunistic feeders: adapting to what food is available: some fishes, crustaceans, starfish, whelks
• shutting off: switching to a low energy state in periods of adversity (=misfortune)
• ability to fast: clams shut down in periods of poisonous plankton; sea urchins, mussels, cockles,
• hibernating/aestivating: hiding in a small place and living frugally from stored reserves:

The Plankton Balance Hypothesis posits (= proposes, assumes) that decomposing organisms like bacteria, viruses and fungi are bound to pose the main threats when an environment degrades. We will now posit that an organism has two major defences: its immune system which fights infections within, and its microcosmos of friendly microbes which protects it from the outside. In the world of microbes a new microbe won't make it when all space is occupied by others. Likewise evidence exists that the main protection of the human skin is the microcosmos of microbes living on it. Thus we conclude that organisms who are covered in a rich cocktail of friendly microbes, are correspondingly more hardy:

• tubes/ houses: those living within tubes protect their own microcosmos inside these tubes.
• tube worms, corals & hydroids, snails, hermit crabs
• burrows: many burrows are cemented with slime, rich in micro organisms.
• burrowing worms, crabs, shrimp, sea cucumber, eels, etc.
• slimy skins: a slimy skin may house and feed a rich protective microcosm of microbes.
• eels, some fishes, snails, nudibranchs, seaweeds, sea cucumbers, seaweeds,
• contracting/expanding: the ability to shed sediment and microbial attack by contracting and expanding
• anemones (most actinia), soft corals, molluscs, worms, some sponges,
• external covering: covering with external objects to create a wall of protective organisms and bacteria
• sponges covered in sand or coralline paint, anemones covered in sand, sea cucumbers covered in sand, some seasquirts,

• herbivores: live in the sun-lit zone where wave action cleanses. Food aplenty but must eat regularly. Low quality food and digestion is slow. Many herbivores spend much of their energy on producing a shell (snails). Herbivores are bound to be sensitive: butterfish, bluefish, parore. The rapid decline of butterfish at the Poor Knights marine reserve may well illustrate this principle.
• carnivores: depend on herbivores. High quality food with fat. Can fast for a long time. Some high energy hunters (tuna) must eat regularly. Most can fast well. Carnivores are bound to be resilient.
• detritivores: live on the bottom. Feed from food rained down from above. Low quality food aplenty. Must eat regularly. Live close to decay organisms. Mobile detritivores are bound to be sensitive whereas burrowed ones not.
• scavengers: feed on dead animals. High quality food scarce and unpredictable. Able to hibernate and fast. Must be resistant to decay organisms.
• phytoplankton feeders: Low quality food is seasonal from binge to famine. Can't change diet. Able to fast but many do not have large stores.
• zooplankton feeders: High quality food is seasonal from binge to famine. Can't change diet. Able to fast but many do not have large stores.