Conservation 1

Conservation principles 1

contents index, introduction, threats and limitations

By Dr J Floor Anthoni (2001)
www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/cons/conserve.htm

In this article you'll discover the reasons for conservation and what benefits it may bring. You will also notice that humans with their many rights and wishes, and their administrative organisations, complicate matters enormously. It is important to learn the rules for successful conservation, from saving a species to saving a habitat. You will also appreciate that the conservation of nature is very worthwhile and satisfying to do.

this long article has been divided in three: part1 (this page), part2, part3 as shown by their colours

introduction		Introduction to this article on conservation. Types of conservation.
threats and limits		Typical threats to our environment. Conservation tools. Sectors of society affected. Limits to our knowledge. Sustainable development. Typical conservation solutions. Economic tools and incentives.
motivation		Motivation for conservation. Perceived benefits. Approaching problems with solutions from all angles. From pillage to paradise. The human dimension. Objections. Ten dilemmas.
conservation biology		Principles of conservation. Conservation biology. Biotechnology. The boundary effect.
protecting a species		To protect a species, a high degree of knowledge is required. Special species.
protecting a spot		A unique spot is worth conserving because there are very few like it. A unique spot may have been caused by a coincidence of chance. Good spots are worth saving. Bad spots much less so.
protecting a habitat		Within a habitat live many species in a working relationship. By saving a habitat, a working unit containing many species is saved. Such units are more resilient than species alone.
spiritual dimension		Doing something for the environment is not only very necessary but also immensely satisfying, because you know that it is not easy, and that it is for someone else, perhaps your own children. Conservation lives only in the mind.
conservation practice		The main things to do are: setting aside what is unused; preventing and removing threats; mitigating and fixing problems.
various countries		The situation in various countries illustrates their differences and difficulties. Afghanistan, America, Australia, The Netherlands, New Zealand.
for further study		sitemap: our site map gives you immediate access to all articles on this site. (11p) biodiversity: what is biodiversity? How to understand biodiversity and what is not biodiversity. (32p) resource management: all conservation begins by understanding resource management first. (28p) marine conservation: the sea is so different from the land that it requires special understanding. (34p) marine degradation: whatever we do wrong on the land, threatens the sea. (30p) soil: our most important renewable resource we are losing fastest. What can we do? (large) disappearing beaches: we are losing our beaches but few know why, as we do the wrong things. (53p) science, technology and human nature: if you think we can save ourselves, think again. (35p) global threats to people and environment: a summary of the threats to ourselves and others. Ouch! (20p) IUCN Protected Areas recommendations made during the Fifth World Parks Congress (Sep 2003). Covers all aspects of terrestrial and marine proteted areas for further study. Often naive and impractical. (50-60pages, printer-friendly)
world links		University of California, Peter Bryant's hypertext book Biodiversity and conservation. Other papers about sustainability.

go to part2 <==> go to part3
go back to the conservation section with resource management, biodiversity, marine conservation

Note! for best printed results, set your page up with a left margin of 1.5cm (0.6") and right margin of 1.0cm (0.4")
The whole article covers about 0.25MB (31 pages), including text, drawings and photographs.
-- home -- conservation index -- Rev:20011011,20011026,20021130,20040421,20070725,

Introduction

This article builds further on the two preceding ones, resource management and biodiversity, and is followed up by marine conservation. Gems of knowledge are revealed in each, so please read it all. In this article, we'll investigate what people do to mitigate (soften) the side effects of their actions. The main recipient of these side effects is nature, but humans affect their own quality of life too. So conservation has become to mean the preservation of nature.

conservation: (L: com-=with; servare= to keep) preservation, especially of the natural environment. Keeping from harm or damage, especially for later use. Maintaining a quantity. The management, protection, and wise use of natural resources, the things that help support life.
conservation is unnatural

Cartoon about habitat destruction and housing

Conservation is rooted in the belief that something can be done to prevent the loss of an endeared entity. When we saw native forests disappearing to shipbuilding and firewood, we began to protect them, goes the story. However, the truth follows a slightly different path. Forests were saved because people discovered coal, which was much more efficient to use. Instead of building ships from timber, steel proved to be a better choice. Instead of burning firewood for locomotives, coal proved more efficient. Thus coal and steel saved the remnants of native forests. Likewise it was fossil oil that saved the whales. If no economic replacement can be found, people will use the resource to the last little bit. Conservation in its early days, often happened by accident. However, today, people are using knowledge, foresight, labour and technology for proactive conservation.

Conservation objectives of main resource catagories

Nevertheless, it seems that the three underlying causes, population growth, economic growth and material needs ('standard of living') are too holy to be stemmed, or even discussed. So it happens that all our conservation efforts are directed at fixing problems, rather than preventing them. Worse still, the concept of sustainable development requires us to increase economic activity while also conserving the environment, two opposing goals. Conservationists now try to improve our 'quality of life', the need for a clean environment, such as clean air and water, uncluttered living areas, and unspoiled scenic lands. Only very recently has the concept of biodiversity entered the conservationist's vocabulary. It requires healthy ecosystems, not just for the benefit of people but also for those other millions of species. Conservation can be grouped into the following classes:

soil conservation: soil has become threatened by human cultivation and climate change, resulting in loss of fertility, erosion and desertification. See our separate section on soil.
water conservation: water is needed for food and industry, but in many nations a severe shortage is looming as humans use over 50% of fresh water that never reaches the sea. See also our separate section soil/fertility/water.
atmosphere conservation: Clean air is needed by all organisms on Earth. The atmosphere regulates the Earth's temperature and protects it from harmful radiation. Global warming and ozone depletion threaten all organisms, including humans. A separate section will be devoted to this subject.
natural habitat conservation: wildlife needs natural habitat, one of the subjects in this article.
wildlife conservation: preventing extinctions, maintaining biodiversity. When severely endangered, conservation focuses on the conservation of a species, which is also dealt with in this article.
mineral conservation: the mining of minerals rests almost exclusively in the hands of mining companies. Their business is to supply an ever hungrier market. Conservation of minerals can be done only at the consumer's end, by reducing the need, reusing by-products and recycling wastes (the three Rs). A separate section will be devoted to this later.
energy conservation: energy is the main driving force behind industry and indeed our civilisation. Our entire standard of living depends on energy to the extent, that people in developed countries use the equivalent of 50 human slaves each, or more. Fossil fuel is going to run out and alternatives have to be found, as well as energy conserved. In 2003 a separate section will be devoted to the problems of energy.
urban conservation: in recent times, many cities have grown so rapidly that they have become unlivable due to overcrowding, traffic jams, inadequate public transportation systems, air and water pollution, noise, and lack of recreational parks. People flee the cities to live in suburbs, causing urban areas to sprawl, which exacerbates the transport-related problems. Urban conservation aims to make cities more livable, while halting urban sprawl. This aspect of conservation will be treated on this web site at a much later date.
marine conservation: the marine environment has its own rules, and needs to be considered separately. See the article conservation/marine.

The history of conservation began with land conservation by terracing cropland (1000BC, including vineyards and olive groves), water conservation by water harvesting and irrigation (100AD), natural parks for wildlife and scenery (1870), hunting and fishing laws (1900). The depression of the 1930s saw active planting of forests on degraded lands, and building dams and levees to control flooding. World War II closed fishing for a while, allowing fish stocks to recover (1939-1945). The 1970s highlighted the dangers of agrichemicals like DDT. The 1980s became aware of the disappearing rainforests, the 1990s of climate change and greenhouse gases, and today conservation is slowly taking in all aspects of unnatural human influence, rendering the subject rather large and confusing.

This article will look at conservation, in order of generality, as saving:

an endangered species: the most acute form of conservation and the most popularised, and also the most expensive is to attempt to save a species on its own. Saving is difficult. Marine mammals conservation will be treated in a separate article.
a unique spot: without being able to say why, people are able to recognise unique spots. Because of their uniqueness alone, these deserve to be saved. Saving is easy if people agree.
a migration relay: some places are special spots for nature, not for humans. It is important to recognise such spots and to save them, because many species rely on them for their survival.
a sample habitat: by saving a habitat, a large number of interrelating species is saved as well. It requires a certain amount of knowledge to do so.
genetic diversity: saving genetic diversity should be simple, but to do so effectively, has some pitfalls. This has been discussed extensively in the article on biodiversity.

In this article, we'll look at the threats to ourselves and nature, our motivations for doing something about them, and how it is done. In the process, we'll discover some basic principles, benefits and limitations, and a number of solutions. The purpose of this article is not to give recipes, but to foster an understanding of all related issues, so that you can make your own conservation plan. It will become clear that conservation is not easy to do right, and many mistakes have indeed been made. Please note that some gems of understanding have been presented in all the other articles belonging to the section on conservation, of which this document is but one article.

Ever since humans populated the Earth, and constructed civilisations, threats have haunted them. So what are these threats?

Threats to the environment

Most of the side effects of human activity have remained unnoticed because they either happen very slowly, or somewhere else. People have become very good at avoiding unpleasant side effects, like living outside cities to escape air pollution, processing wastes and sewage far away from where people live, and so on. Those with power have often found ways to avoid the unpleasantness of their actions, which is much easier than confronting the issues. As a result, conservation action often comes when the situation has become unsalvageable.

In the Summary of threats to humans and the environment, an attempt has been made to list all the human-made effects and their causes, amounting to a damning report card with frightening consequences. As mentioned above, people do not wish to remove the real causes of their problems, even when continuing their ways makes no sense. For instance, since 1970 the economy more than doubled, but personal discretionary spending remained the same. People today are hardly better off than 30 years ago. We have to work harder in order to be able to afford the same. In the same period, the pressure on the environment and on humans themselves, grew threefold! Clearly, a tradeoff between zero percent better living and 300% higher risk, is not a sensible one.

One would like to be able to classify the threats to the environment by the seriousness of their nature, but this cannot be done, because threats differ from place to place. However, we have placed them here in order of seriousness globally, while also indicating whether old or new. Old threats are those nature has learnt to deal with, and from which it can recover more easily.

habitat loss, disturbance & fragmentation (new): habitat destruction is by far the most serious of all. By taking the house and livelihood away from species, they have no place to live, so they die. Once habitats are changed, the soil and water cycle changes, and everything else with it. It is unlikely that habitats can ever be restored. It would take thousands of years.
exotic species introduction (new): exotic species like rats, mice, stoats, cats, goats, pigs, deer and other pests, have displaced native species and preyed upon them. It has changed the balance achieved through thousands of years of co-habitation thoroughly, driving many species to extinction and changing the environment forever.
soil erosion (old): where humans have unsuccessfully farmed, cropped or grazed, not only have habitats been lost, but also the fertility of the land. Erosion sets in and nature attempts to redress the damage by establishing weeds and successions of species to stabilise the land, and to revert it to a new balance. It will take a hundred years for a modest recovery, but a thousand years or more for full recovery. If grazing by goats and deer continues, erosion will ultimately bare the basal rocks, resulting in absolute infertility and several thousands of years to recover.
exploitation (old): predation is natural and necessary to stabilise populations.

balanced expoitation (old): after thousands of years of living together, an ecosystem has developed predation to benefit the community and its functioning. Predation does not wipe out selected species. Recovery is quick.
unbalanced overexploitation (new): hunting and fishing wipe out selected species, thereby affecting the balance of communities, and with it their functioning. Recovery is slow.

competition for food (old): where species are threatened by competition for food, fewer are able to survive. As long as some food remains available, recovery is fast. However, humans pride themselves in their effectiveness of taking all.
chemical pollution (new): humans have made a frightening arsenal of new chemicals, unknown to nature. Many of these are very potent biocides, developed for this purpose, and such that nature has no defense against them, which renders them effective for a long time (forever?). Such poisons can accumulate in organisms all the way up the food pyramid. By means of high level energy, humans are able to make chemical compounds that won't break down by natural means. These are valuable to us for their longevity (paints, metals, plastics), but should not be released into the environment, since nature has no way of breaking them down.
nutrient discharge (old): where people congregate, sewage concentrates from the food they eat. The valuable nutrients in sewage should have been returned to the land, but they are wasted to the sea instead. It causes problems. To make matters worse, because nutrients do not return to where they originated, farmers use artificial fertilisers to make up for this loss, which causes additional problems. Fortunately, nature adapts to a certain degree, but in many places we have gone over their limits.
global climate change (old): the planet has survived excursions in global temperature, although accompanied with loss of species and changes in ecosystems. Life on the planet has evolved to stabilise temperature fluctuations, but within narrow limits. Small changes in temperature can be adapted to, but large changes may result in catastrophy. Local climate change due to the disruption of the water cycle, is bound to have more serious and lasting effects.
nuclear wastes (new): nuclear wastes have the nature of being dangerous and long-lasting. But the world, its atmosphere and space have a certain amount of natural radiation, which has not been damaging, even been beneficial to life. Storing nuclear wastes in a responsible way is a problem. Nature has no means of cleaning it up naturally. Only time cures it (thousands of years).
debris pollution (new): debris like tree leaves, branches and trunks have always 'littered' nature, but with harmless or even useful effects. However, pollution by manmade, lasting products, has an influence on some species. Humans don't like the look of their own wastes, and in the process, clean up natural debris as well.
pathogen discharge (old/new): pathogens (diseases) are life forms, living on other organisms. They have always been around and nature knows how to handle them. However, a new disease, arriving from a different continent, may quickly wipe out one or more species that have no immunity to it.

All the above mentioned threats have, of course, been created by human activity. The table below attempts to present an overview of human activities and their threats to our resources.

Effects of human activities on our main resources

	living, working, recreation	construction, roading	transport, movement	energy & mining	manufacturing, industry	agriculture, forestry
bio diversity	cats and dogs, rats, predation, exotic plants, exotic foods, diseases,	development, reclamation, runoff	fragmentation by roads, pollution, roadkill, spread of diseases & pests,	poison land, poison rivers, disturbance,	poisons,	habitat loss, exotic species, monocultures, diseases, competition,
habitat	loss from cities, suburbs, roads, paving, debris,	loss from development, reclamation,	fragmentation, roadkill, debris,	disturbance,	-	habitat loss, exotic habitats,
soil	reclamation, paving.	landscaping, disturbance,	paving, lead,	spoils, scars, relocation,	paving,	erosion, unfertility, salinisation,
water	sewage, using water, fast runoff, rapid streamflow, pathogens,	disturbs hydrology, mud runoff,	oil, heavy metals, chemicals, fast runoff,	heavy use of water, poisoned rivers, nuclear wastes,	heavy use of water, pollution, poisons,	aquifer depletion, eutrophication, biocides, pathogens, fast runoff,
air	methane, CO2,	heavy equipment, exhaust,	exhaust gases, nitric oxides, ozone, soot,	exhaust gases,	poisons, exhaust gases,	methane, CO2, nitric oxides,
fish, sea	food, fishing, overexploitation, debris,	pollution, sediment,	exotic species, ballast water, antifouling paint, oil spills, debris,	poisons, nuclear wastes,	poisons,	runoff/erosion, fertiliser, biocides, eutrophication, plankton blooms,
energy	electricity, heating, cooking, refrigerating, airconditioning, plastics,	use of oil, bitumen,	use of oil, plastics,	heavy use, oil, coal, electricity,	heavy use of energy,	use of energy, chemicals, fertiliser,
minerals	various minerals, timber, concrete, glass,	various minerals, timber, concrete, glass, stone,	various minerals, steel, aluminium, rubber,	produces minerals,	heavy use of minerals,	fertiliser,
urban, human habitat	provides culture, crowding, loss of time, hindrance,	creates new habitat & facilities, noise,	space for roads & parking, exhaust gases, noise, hindrance, traffic jams,	-	provides jobs & income, pollutes, exhaust gases, uses space,	-

This table gives an overview of the damage caused by what we do. Horizontally our main resources; vertically our actions. Conservation must be concerned with reducing all threats on all our resources. Note that the activity of fishing has been left out, because it has little or no effect on the other resources. Marine conservation is an entirely separate issue.

With so many threats identified, what are our options and tools to do something about them?

Conservation tools
Solving problems the wrong way: ambulances at the bottom of the cliff Since our threats and problems appear to come from our actions, it stands to reason that controlling those, would bring solution. However, the path to a problem consists of several steps, which can all be addressed to solve or to alleviate our problems. The diagram here shows that problems arise from a need, which leads to action. To look at problems alone, would bring costly fixes that do not last. They look like providing ambulances at the bottom of the cliff, rather than a fence at the top. The best solution is decreasing human population, then abating our needs, followed by controlling our actions, and finally by fixing problems.

The conservation toolkit consists essentially of controlling the when, where, how and how much, as follows:

people: controlling the number of people is difficult on a worldwide scale, but can be achieved locally in many ways. By limiting the growth of an activity, its impact can be reduced. Advance bookings, required competence, fees, required participation (work) can all help to stem the number of people.
need: people's perception of need can be reduced. Ban advertising. Control (TV) advertising. Alternatives.
time considerations (when): an activity often does not need to continue, and time can be allocated for nature to recover. Fishing areas can be closed temporarily. Pressure from tourism may disappear during winter. Carless days. Seasonal closures.
designating areas (where): activities which are conflicting, can be separated by designating special areas for each. Living outside the noise and pollution of manufacturing. Closed areas (reserves). Areas with restricted activity (parks).
quantities (how much): by controlling quantities, especially in renewable resources, nature is given time to replenish. In industry substantial gains in efficiency can be made, but usually only once.

reduce: reduce the amounts: eat less meat; do not overeat. Use less for producing the same (energy and minerals). Less packaging.
reuse: find a use for what has been discarded during production. Other industries may have a use for your discards. It may provide additional income. Reusing packaging like containers, for something else. Multiple use: design the product and packaging for multiple use.
recycle: reuse the materials of products that have come to the end of their lives. Recycle rubbish. A natural world consists of cycles, which are closed almost completely. Nature recycles optimally, and so does a sustainable society. Recycling glass, aluminium, paper, garden wastes.

quality: some goods need high quality, some need to be long-lasting, others need to degrade quickly after having been discarded. Quality applies both to our actions, their outcomes and resource use.

quality: avoiding obsolescence. Making products to last for future uses. Making products field-upgradable, modular, compatible, repairable. Using standards. Reducing spare parts inventories. Reducing the number of similar products.
durability: making things last. Reliability, serviceability, longer-lasting. It reduces our need for replacement. Anti-rotting treatment (timber).
biodegradability: making things that are short-lived, self-destructing, degrading quickly into biologically recyclable substances (packaging, newspapers, toilet paper).

methods (how): we can do things in more friendly and less damaging or energy inefficient ways. Often ignorance causes harmful actions. Many inventive solutions exist.
disposal: every product comes to the end of its use, and needs to be disposed of. Plan disposal when the product is made. Reuse, recycle.
reducing risk: safety for workers, against mechanical harm, breathing or contact with materials. Applying the cautionary principle when in doubt. Keeping wide margins. Spreading risk. Risk is often in conflict with efficiency of scale. Smaller units.
prevention (environmental hygiene): prevention of threats is the best medicine. Like hygiene for health, it gives the best results for the least cost. Preventing habitat destruction is very important and effective, and so is preventing the introduction of exotic species (biosecurity). Education is the right way.
substituting: finding alternative solutions to satisfy our needs, or changing our needs. Fish watching instead of fishing. Tramping instead of hunting. Paper instead of plastics.
sharing: sharing products to get better use, and reduce costs. Renting rather than buying. It forces manufacturers to make lasting products which are cheap to use. Sharing makes better use of resources.
motivation: incentives and disincentives. Subsidies and taxes. Punishment. Compliance. Enforcement. Law (local, national and international). People must be protected from harm and incompatible activities, and this can be extended to resource use. Law is suitable for 100/100 solutions: full compliance at full cost. See economic tools and incentives below.
education: education to make people aware; to enlist support; to change a mind-set. Education is cheap and long-lasting. It works particularly well for conservation, which often requires 80/20 solutions, where most of the result is achieved with the least cost. It relies on responsibilities in return for freedom. It also works in unforeseen circumstances.
captive breeding: as a last resort, technology and inventiveness can be used to increase numbers, either by assistance in the wild (nest boxes, pseudo parents), or by capture and reintroduction into areas without threat (island reserves), or by captive breeding followed by reintroduction into the wild. If reintroduction is not possible, the threatened species may need to be kept in zoos (plants in gardens).
business approach: if possible, turn conservation into an income earner. Eco-tourism, business franchises and entry fees can all help to defray the cost of conservation. See economic tools and incentives below.

Note that combinations of several of the above-mentioned improvements are usually made, like a temporarily closed area, higher quality service combined with reduced risk, and education programmes.

Please take some time now to apply these conservation tools to some of the threats and harmful activities listed in the table above. Imagine the effectiveness of your solutions, and how society would react. Also consider the cost of implementation and enforcement, and how long it would take to show results. Make a realistic implementation plan, followed by a management plan.

It is often thought that by doing nothing (no-take policy), a reserved area will improve by itself over time. However, when the causes of species decline (threats) are not taken away, that won't happen. Conservation is about taking threats away. It makes no sense to lock species up in a prison (reserve) together with their threats. Thus the removal of exotic predator species from island reserves is of utmost importance.

Clark cartoon: conservation of parks and reserves

If people were to immediately experience their own wrongdoings, they would be more inclined to corrective action. How then can they be made to bear the cost of their actions?

Economic tools and incentives
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Global Biodiversity Assessment (GBA) approaches conservation from a freemarket perspective, which dominated the worldview at the time (1992-1995). The idea is that the market price mechanism should be able to drive the conservation effort, which would need no further interference. In the box the suggestions made by UNEP GBA. Please note that none of the options has been tested or proved in practice.

Lowering forest production costs: Costs can be reduced by directly involving the local populations in the protection and management of natural ecosystems (as guards, tour guides, collectors of non-timber forest products and scientific samples).

Using water fees as ecosystem conservation incentives: Local communities derive little benefit from maintaining the watersheds, since the principal beneficiaries are located downstream. Water and hydropower pricing that includes a watershed protection charge levied upon farmers, urban and industrial users, provides a way of compensating local communities.

Internalising tourism benefits: The portion of ecotourism benefits that flow to the local population can be expanded by engaging local people as guards and tour guides, and by issuing ecotourism franchises to communities and allocating a portion of the ensuing revenues to the development of local employment opportunities.

Reforestation incentives: Land owners who keep their land in forests, can receive a tax credit or rate rebate. Since this approach is especially beneficial to large, wealthy owners, a system can be devised whereby small-holders can earn tax credits that they can sell to wealthy taxpayers having taxes to offset.

Differential land use taxes: Categories for classifying land uses can range from environmentally most beneficial (e..g. natural forest) to environmentally most destructive (e.g. industrial site). To internalise the environmental cost of habitat conversion, a charge is imposed on the landowners when land use is changed from a higher to a lower class.

Environmental performance bonds: Environmental bonds shift responsibility for controlling deforestation, monitoring and enforcement, to individual producers and consumers who are charged in advance for the potential damage. These bonds can ensure that adequate measures are taken to minimise environmental damage and that funds are available for restoration of environments if compliance is poor.

Forest compacts: Compacts are undertaken by one country with the support of another, to engage in policy reforms, conservation and investment programmes, that achieve specified targets of sustainable forest management or preservation in exchange for financial and technology resources. For example, Carbon Offset Agreements have been established between a power utility company in a developed country and a developing country, to finance a shift to more sustainable logging practices, in exchange for tax credit by the utility for the carbon stored or retained on sites by the funded forestry activity.

Transferable Development Rights (TDRs) and Conservation Easements: These policy instruments enable a country or private land owner to sell the 'right' to convert a natural habitat for a price that fully covers the opportunity cost.

(Source: UNEP Global Biodiversity Assessment, 1995)

One of the causes of environmental threats is ignorance. What do we know, and how can we spread that knowledge?

Limits to ecological knowledge
Science has become great by applying the scientific method, honesty and intensive scrutiny. Those branches of science able to conduct controlled experiments, flourished (physics, chemistry, microbiology, medicine, etc.). However, ecology, the knowledge of living communities, and how they function, is hampered by a number of problems:

large systems: ecosystems are large, covering many hundreds of kilometres. Causes may originate many hundreds of kilometres upwind or upcurrent. Plankton systems move around, and up and down.
large timescales: some changes happen in a matter of minutes or hours (bacteria), whereas others happen in thousands of years (soil formation, succession and microclimate), or millions of years (evolution, adaptation).
natural variation: natural variation can hide trends and make observations and the collecting of data, comparing and analysing, difficult or impossible to do. Variations occur in time, from season to season and year to year, and spatially from creek to hill crest, north to south, east to west, bottom to top, this side to that, and so on. What is natural and what is not?
complexity: within an ecosystem, food is produced on several levels (bacteria, fungi, plants, animals), and species depend on one another as a source of food. As a consequence they profoundly affect one another's lives. But ecological relationships go further, providing attachment, shelter, pollination, protection, pest control and so on. Some species have many larval stages and sources of food (sea).
no base studies: one would like to go back in time, to study how the situation was before problems became visible, in order to make comparisons. The reality is that baseline studies have not been done, which is understandable because some problems could not be predicted - then again, many could. We have no record of all species on Earth, thus we will never know which or how many have become extinct already (calculated at 12%).
non-linear systems: nature does not always behave like an elastic band. Pull it, and it extends. Pull it further and it extends further, while offering more resistance. Pull it further still, and the band snaps - that is non-linear behaviour. It is unpredictable and does not follow known arithmetic or logic. Non-linear is also the growth of an individual, a population, distribution, reaction to external factors like temperature, and much more. Ecosystems accumulate certain qualities (humus, nutrients, energy), but also poisons (DDT). Irreversible change is possible, and we don't know when that will happen.
feedback: natural systems achieve stability by feedback mechanisms which evolved over time, by the interaction of hundreds of species. A feedback control system feeds some of its output (effects) back to its inputs (causes) so that it reduces them to produce a stable output. Time lags between causes and effects complicate matters further.
not suitable for laboratory: ecosystems do not lend themselves for controlled experiments in the laboratory. They are too large, and transporting them would change them radically. Studies cannot be duplicated for verification elsewhere, because the ecosystems will be different. Changes that are so easy to see, are often very hard to quantify.
field work required: ecosystems can only be studied where they are. It involves inconvenience and difficulty in conducting meaningful experiments. Isolating a single tree ten times, is a major job.
modelling: where systems are too large to handle, scientists resort to mathematical models in order to create a virtual reality, which can then be compared with the real situation. However, ecological processes are rather complicated by the large numbers of interactions, non-linear mathematics and many unknown factors.
surprises: phenomena that run counter to intuition turn out to be sharply different than was conceived. Behaviours are profoundly unexpected, and when action produces a result opposite to that intended - in short, when perceived reality departs quantitatively from expectation. (C S Holling, 1970s)

With knowledge of the consequences of our actions in place, we can now develop civilisation further, but on a sustainable basis, or can we?

Sustainable development
The notion of sustainable development comes from the inequality between the developed and the developing world. The developed world became prosperous from the use of technology and excessive amounts of fossil fuel. The developing world hopes to get there using the same formula. It would thus be unfair to apply the same rules to both. For instance, whereas the developed world could sustain savings in fuel by pressing for fuel efficiency, this would be of unaffordable cost to a developing world.

As a consequence, sustainable development has these two aspects:

developed world: more efficient exploitation by use of technology + green engineering (reduce + reuse + recycle + energy saving)
undeveloped world: achieve increasing wealth quickly by escalating consumption + exploiting new resources + use of dirty technologies.

The urge for development also comes from a fictional mandate we have given ourselves, that of not withholding prosperity from present and future generations. Thus the world and its resources must be exploited to their maximum in order not to deny this right to present and unborn generations. However, what we use today, won't be there tomorrow. The concept of sustainable development is riddled with contradictions.

go to part2 <==> go to part3
.